In a move we had been hinting at for some time, reports state that Kim Jong Un has reshuffled his top military cabinet ahead of a now on again meeting with President Trump and U.S. officials in Singapore on June 12th.
Asahi Shimbun writes:
In the years following his ascendancy to the position of premier of North Korea, Kim Jong Un consolidated power via a series of notoriously brutal purges of top officials once loyal to his father. But just how firm his grip on power remains as he spearheads potentially drastic changes to the country's long-standing foreign and defense policy is up for debate.
We have long warned that even going into direct talks with the United States and South Korea, along with the imagery that goes along with them, is a threat to the country's ruling military elites. Just last March, when Kim made his first international trip abroad since rising to power nearly seven years ago, we wrote:
With this in mind, and if the last minute changes Kim's highest military aide roster did indeed occur, it would seem that there is a real fear of instability—or at least dissension—among the North Korean military's top ranks. It is also notable that the usual military cadre that surrounds Kim hasn't been omnipresent in photographs as of late, with Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong being far more visible than in the past.
Considering that Kim Jong Un will be leaving the country for the highly controversial summit in Singapore—only the third trip he has made abroad as ruler of North Korea and by far the furthest away, with the other two being to nearby China—if there was ever a possibility for a coup it would be then. These sudden personnel changes could reflect a move to preempt such an occurrence.
But still, this doesn't answer one of our biggest questions that has been outstanding since his first trip abroad in March—who is in control of the country's nuclear arsenal when he is gone? North Korea doesn't have any independent satellite communications systems to support a robust remote command and control system. Anything of the sort would be vulnerable as it would be provided commercially or by China. So clearly Kim's power and the nuclear arsenal that goes along with it would be far more prone to commandeering while he is thousands of miles away 'in the blind' at a summit that largely goes against the country's long-standing cornerstone as an adversarial military dictatorship.
This sets up a highly interesting possibility that even if Kim Jong Un wanted to give up his nuclear arsenal and enter into the community of nations, could he actually do it? Would such a drastic move spark revolt from North Korea's military ruling class and even from those who are considered 'moderate?' Time will tell if this even becomes an issue in the first place, as there is no real sign that North Korea intends to relinquish its nuclear weapons anytime soon.
Kim's increased relevance on the world stage due to his abrupt change in tone is also clear, regardless of actual results. After multiple meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russia has also stepped into the high-level fray, sending their top diplomat Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang to meet directly with Kim—the first time such a high-level meeting has taken place since Kim took control of the country in 2011.
The visit not only gave us some unprecedented looks inside the country, but it also illustrated Moscow's wish to become a more central player when it comes to North Korea's emergence on the world stage.
Lavrov even invited Kim to Moscow to meet with President Putin and Kim was quoted as saying the following during the top Russian diplomat's visit:
"I highly value the fact that Putin's administration strictly opposes the U.S.' dominance."
Lavrov also pushed for the quick lifting of sanctions if any deal was struck, stating:
With China clearly reengaging with North Korea at the highest levels—which some said prompted North Korea to pull back from its rush to meet with the U.S. President—and now Russia stepping into the fray, the negotiations on June 12th will be an even more complex international affair.
It's possible that if the June 12th talks end up going nowhere, China and/or Russia could simply step away from the sanctions regime in exchange for security cooperation with North Korea and to foil the possibility of enhanced U.S. influence in the region. Either country could provide North Korea with everything it needs to maintain a stable economy and to even improve its defenses. Considering both countries border the 'Hermit Kingdom,' even a naval blockade couldn't stop such a strategy from having a massive impact. It's also possible that such a move would include focusing on negotiations between North and South Korea in order to increase the divide between Seoul and Washington.
All the international attention, especially from its neighbors with far greater resources, seems to have made North Korea's new foreign relations strategy already a success. Even Syria's Bashar al Assad is supposedly planning to travel to North Korea to meet Kim. If these reports are valid, it's a strange move considering the countries already supposedly have a deep clandestine relationship, especially having to do with nuclear capabilities and chemical weapons. If the visit does occur, it will be the first time Kim has hosted the leader of a foreign country.
Contact the author: [email protected]
